Climate Change and Its Impact on Groundwater Resources in Semi-Arid Regions: A Case Study of Libya

Abstract

Libya is classified as a hyper-arid to semi-arid nation that relies almost entirely on non-renewable groundwater from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS). This dependence is driven by extremely low annual rainfall, where 93% of the land receives less than 100 mm, and evaporation rates reach up to 4079 mm. Climate change is significantly accelerating resource depletion in the region. Projections indicate a temperature rise of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius by 2050, leading to a 10% to 15% increase in evapotranspiration. These climatic shifts result in unpredictable precipitation patterns and extended drought periods, which effectively prevent natural groundwater recharge in most regions. Currently, the Great Man-Made River (GMMR) project facilitates the extraction of 79% of Libya's water from these fossil sources. Agriculture remains the primary consumer, accounting for 83% of total water use, which has led to a critical decline in basin water levels by 1 to 2 meters annually. Furthermore, coastal aquifers face increasing risks of salinization and deteriorating water quality. This review, analyzing data from 2020 to 2025, identifies profound system vulnerabilities caused by the imbalance between supply and demand. To ensure long-term water security, the study proposes the implementation of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) alongside the expansion of desalination, wastewater reuse systems, and advanced sustainability monitoring through technologies like GRACE. Without urgent adaptive strategies, the continued over-extraction of non-renewable resources under climate stress poses a severe threat to the nation's socio-economic stability.